DGBAS revises down Taiwan’s 2015 GDP estimate

2016/02/01

Taiwan’s gross domestic product growth estimate for 2015 was revised down to 0.85 percent by the ROC Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics Jan. 29, reflecting the slowing pace of global economic recovery.

Falling 0.21 of a percentage point from the November estimate, the change stems from lackluster exports of goods and services, weak prices for materials and a drop off in fourth-quarter consumption, according to the DGBAS.

“Real exports in commodities and services fell 2.8 percent in Q4, 1.71 percentage points shy of the previous estimate, while imports decreased 1.64 percent, or 1.27 percentage points below forecast,” DGBAS official Wang Shu-chuan said.

Q4 consumption was up 1.64 percent from a year ago, buoyed by rises of 4.29 percent and 4.23 percent in tourist attraction visitors and the food and drink sector, respectively, as well the rollout of the latest smart handheld devices.

In terms of gross capital formation, fixed investment grew 7 percent on continued expansions in the semiconductor and railway industries, boosting year-on-year performance to 0.44 percent negative growth, 0.45 of a percentage point higher than the November estimate.

After seasonal adjustments, Taiwan’s GDP grew 3.22 percent over the previous year in Q4, Wang said, adding this figure points toward a modest rebound for local economy.

Going forward, while most international think tanks predict a rosier outlook for the coming year, uncertainties still remain that may slow the pace of recovery in major economies, the National Development Council said.

Such downside risks include fluctuations in global raw material prices, decelerating growth in mainland China, the impact of that economy’s homegrown supply chain and U.S. interest rate hikes.

The government will work to tackle these challenges, the NDC said, adding that enhancing the local business environment through industry transformation, regulatory easing and talent cultivation remains a top priority.

In addition to spurring consumer consumption, private investment and export growth, an important task is to strengthen Taiwan’s position in the global value supply chain. This will be achieved through a raft of measures being implemented by various central government agencies such as Productivity 4.0 and ide@Taiwan 2020

“These undertakings should enable Taiwan to better position itself in response to the growing global digital economy,” the NDC added.

Source: Taiwan Today (http://taiwantoday.tw/ct.asp?xItem=241905&ctNode=2194&mp=9)