DGBAS revises down Taiwan’s 2015 GDP estimate

2015/08/18

Taiwan’s gross domestic product growth estimate for 2015 was revised down Aug. 14 to 1.56 percent or US$22,704 per capita, reflecting the slowing pace of global economic recovery.

Falling 1.72 percentage points from the May estimates by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, the change stems mainly from weakening external demand.

“Lackluster global sales of consumer electronics is impacting orders for the country’s key products and services like electronic components and contract semiconductor manufacturing,” a DGBAS official said.

Dropping oil prices are also taking a toll on Taiwan’s petrochemical exports, the official said, adding that the agency expects commodity exports to decrease 7.1 percent for the year, with imports down 12.76 percent.

While private investment is still set to increase 2.65 percent, this represents a downward revision of 1.37 percentage points from earlier forecasts, the official said.

But these negatives will be partially offset by an increase of 3.05 percent in private consumption, or 0.29 of a percentage point higher than expected, in light of the country’s improving job market and wages.

With global oil prices hovering at low levels, Taiwan’s consumer prices will decline 0.19 percent year on year, versus the previously projected gain of 0.13 percent.

GDP grew 3.84 percent and 0.52 percent in the first and second quarter, and is set to increase 0.1 percent and 1.9 percent in the following two quarters, respectively. The local economy will expand 2.7 percent in 2016, with per capita GDP reaching US$23,097. Consumer price increases are set to remain in check at 0.74 percent.

The DGBAS simultaneously released data on Taiwan’s household income for 2014.

Total household income was NT$10.62 trillion (US$328.1 billion), up 2.7 percent from the year before, with average household disposable income rising 1.6 percent to NT$957,000.

Source: Taiwan Today (http://taiwantoday.tw/ct.asp?xItem=233867&ctNode=413)