DGBAS revises down Taiwan’s GDP estimate for Q1

2015-05-04

Taiwan’s gross domestic product growth estimate for the first quarter of the year was revised down to 3.46 percent April 30, reflecting the slowing pace of global economic recovery.

Falling 0.04 of a percentage point from the February estimate by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, the change stems from lackluster commodity exports, weak oil and materials prices, and lower than expected consumption.

Despite the revision, the figure is still higher than Singapore, 2.1 percent, and South Korea, 2.4 percent, according to the DGBAS.

“Real exports in commodities and services grew 5.88 percent in Q1, 1.43 percentage points shy of the previous estimate, while imports rose 2.27 percent or 4.04 percentage points below forecast,” a DGBAS official said.

Corporate earnings and the local employment market continued to improve, but the outbreak of avian flu in January put a dent in food service revenues, leading to a 2.51 percent increase in private consumption, down from the projected 3.15 percent.

Despite continuous expansion by Taiwan’s airline industry, decelerating investment by the construction and semiconductor sectors resulted in a 1.12 percent drop-off in capital formation, or 5.06 percentage points short of expectations.

But these negatives are offset by strong manufacturing output, which gained 7.03 percent and contributed to more than half of the growth in the quarter as Taiwan’s key sectors continued ramping up capacity.

The DGBAS expects the local economy to grow 3.78 percent for the year with per capita GDP reaching US$22,823. Consumer price increases are set to remain in check at 0.26 percent.

Source: Taiwan Today (http://taiwantoday.tw/ct.asp?xItem=229911&CtNode=413)