DGBAS ups 2014 GDP forecast for Taiwan

2014-08-19

Taiwan’s 2014 real gross domestic product growth forecast was revised to 3.41 percent from 2.98 percent by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics Aug. 15, reflecting improving conditions at home and abroad.

Increases of consumer prices will remain in check at 1.64 percent for the year, while the per capita GDP is estimated at US$21,450. The second quarter GDP growth estimate was also lifted to 3.74 percent from 2.79 percent due to stronger than expected exports, the fifth quarter of growth in a row.

“Exports in commodities and services grew 4.37 percent in the second quarter, or 1.05 of a percentage point higher than previous expectations on the back of booming demand for Taiwan’s major products like basic metals, electronics and machinery,” DGBAS Minister Shih Shu-mei said.

This positive sentiment also reflected in private consumption during the period, up 2.53 percent from a year ago.

“The local employment market continued to pick up steam, with the second quarter jobless rate dropping to 3.89 percent and average wages up 3.56 percent,” Shih said.

Higher personal income, also driven by booming stock prices, led to an increase of 20.51 percent in new automobile licenses, 13.38 percent in foreign travel, 4.64 percent in retail sales and 4.58 percent in food services.

Such a rosy outlook also boosted private investment, especially from local airline companies seeking new routes and tapping into the budget carrier business.

As the global economy looks set to remain on the growth track, Shih expects Taiwan’s exports to rise 4.09 percent to US$328.2 billion next year, with the GDP gaining 3.51 percent and CPI inching up 1.46 percent.

The DGBAS simultaneously released results of Taiwan’s household income for 2013, which shows the wealth gap continuing to narrow for the fourth consecutive year to 6.08 times.

Average disposal income per household and person increased 2 percent and 2.7 percent to NT$942,000 (US$31,400) and NT$294,000, respectively. Disposable income for the top 20 percent households stood at NT$1.88 million, up 2 percent from the pervious year, while the bottom 20 percent also gained 2.7 percent to NT$309,000.

Shih attributed the improving income distribution to effective policies such as government transfer payment and expenditure aimed at assisting the Taiwan’s disadvantaged groups.

Source: Taiwan Today (http://taiwantoday.tw/ct.asp?xItem=220712&CtNode=413)